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STOCK PROFILE - Aurcana Corp. - Last updated Jan. 4/07;
Aurcana
Corporation
is primarily a
precious metals company that is in the
process of moving from an "exploration" company into a
"producing" company... AUN's mining operations are
concentrated in the country of Mexico...
AUN's head office is located in Vancouver, BC, Canada...
Aurcana is listed on the
Toronto Venture Exchange
under the symbol "AUN".
In Feb. 06 Aurcana issued
a press release that it had signed a letter-of-intent to acquire
controlling interest of the La Negra Silver-Zinc-Copper-Lead mine
located in
Queretaro State, Mexico... since that time, Aurcana has
raised the required financing to purchase the mine, and has
subsequently
completed the mine acquisition.
The acquisition of the
La Negra mine is a major milestone in the companys
history... as the
La Negra mine moves Aurcana from being just another
"exploration" company to a "producing" company... and this is
a very important distinction to make because statistically; less than 1 in 1,000
mining exploration projects ever make it to the true
"production" stage... "exploration companies" face very slim
odds in ever becoming a "true producer", and a mining
exploration company that cannot eventually make it to
production, a merger, or a buy-out, eventually faces dilution,
bankruptcy, dormancy, re-organization, or similar
value-destroying fates.
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Pictures from
Aurcana's La Negra Mine ... |
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While the acquisition of the
La Negra mine is a major milestone for Aurcana... there are
still some risks in this company that require monitoring... probably the biggest risk
is the
La Negra mine itself; whether or not the mine can be
operated profitably?, and if so, how profitably and for how
long?... and because previous resource
estimates for the
La Negra mine are
not 43-101 data compliant, it means there's a risk
the previous resource estimates for
La Negra may not be as accurate
as compared to today's Canadian 43-101 reporting standards...
however, at this point I wouldn't get over-alarmed about this
fact, primarily because the previous owner of the mine was a
Mexican company and was not subject to the current Canadian
Securities standards, and there is a longer trail of production
history with the La Negra Mine.
Because the La Negra mine has a previous production
history (according to the Aurcana web site):
the
La Negra mine has previously
produced 323 million lbs. Zinc, 70 million lbs. Copper, and 161
million lbs. Lead... the current non-43-101 resource
estimates and operating history would still provide a certain
level of guidance... so if/when the La Negra mine does conform
to the current Canadian 43-101 standards, and if the results
were to be good, it'd likely add some additional value to the
company at that point.
Another risk for Aurcana that requires some
monitoring is
"country risk"... because the La Negra
mine is located in a 3rd world country; Mexico, and is thus
subject to certain associated risks... in fact, everyone has recently
seen/heard of the ongoing civil unrest over recent
election results in Mexico... however, putting some of that risk into
perspective; most of the violent civil unrest has been
concentrated in the
Oaxaca district of Mexico... Oaxaca has a very long history of
civil unrest.
IMO, if the civil unrest was to spread
dramatically throughout Mexico, I'd argue that risks to the Mexican
mining industry would be temporarily increased mostly in relation to
things like general strikes and road blockades, etc. ... as
opposed/compared to other types of current country risks
associated with certain South
American countries where the entire business ideology is at risk
of quick, sudden, and radical changes... also, on a positive note in relation to
country
risk, Aurcana's
La Negra mine is located in the "Queretaro"
district of Mexico;
the on-line
dictionary Wikipedia partially
describes the Queretaro district as
"a quite calm
place, with no civil unrest, low crime and a high standard of
living".
So, while there are risks yet to be
quantified relating to the profitability and resource estimates
on the
La Negra mine... a potential positive resource note is; in addition
to
it's historical Silver production,
the mine has previously
produced 323 million lbs. Zinc, 70 million lbs. Copper, and 161
million lbs. Lead... and anyone who has studied the
historical inventory and price levels of Zinc, Copper, and Lead
know prices and demand for these commodities are strong, and
readily available world-wide supplies of
Zinc,
Copper, and
Lead are at very low levels, the dynamics of which are
unlikely to change much in the short-term, IMO.
So providing AUN mngmt. can bring the
La Negra mine into full production, eventually achieving
profitability, as well as eventually proving resource
estimates that show a longer-term profitable life for the mine,
IMO Aurcana's shares could produce healthy rates of return
sometime within the next 12
- 24 months from current levels.
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