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Nov 22/06 CMM Update:
I have just recently sold all my
CMM shares. As I noted in my last CMM profile
updated on Nov 13/06 (see below) I noted; QUOTE:
"recent history has
shown "mngmt.
risk" and "country risk" need to be monitored closely with this
company, because missed production targets and permitting delays could
delay/mute anticipated appreciation in share value, possibly
even during
a general environment of rising Precious Metals prices".
I made the decision just
recently and sold all my remaining CMM shares
because the company continues to demonstrate it has
continued problems meeting it's guidance and
executing key parts of it's business plan.
In addition to the above,
because CMM is forecasting significant growth to
it's Gold production in 2007, I feel the risks are
quite high that CMM mngmt. will have difficulties
meeting (even closely) their 2007 projected Gold
production.
CMM still has some interesting
assets, however, because I'm forecasting that CMM
may have difficulties meeting it's 2007 guidance,
I'm forecasting CMM will under-perform similar
available investment vehicles in the short-term.
CMM could warrant a future
re-investment sometime in the future, depending on
variables within the company that are yet to play
out.
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NOTE: The CMM Profile below is now
obsolete... see Nov. 22/06 update above.
STOCK PROFILE - Century Mining Corp. - Last updated
Nov. 13/06;
Century Mining Corp.
is a Canadian based Junior Gold producer with total forecasted 2006 Gold
production of 88,100 oz....
currently,
approx. 91% of CMM's Gold production comes from it's Canadian mining
operations, and only
approx. 9% of total Gold production comes from it's mining operations
located in Peru.
CMM is forecasting it's total Gold production
growth for 2007 at approx. 85%... and total Gold production growth for
2008 at approx. 49% over 2007... total Gold production forecasts to
2008 from CMM is as
follows...
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CMM Production Guidance: |
|
OZ. Gold: |
Date: |
Growth: |
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88,100
oz. Gold |
2006 |
|
|
163,000 oz.
Gold |
2007 |
+ 85% |
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243,000 oz.
Gold |
2008 |
+ 49% |
CMM's future estimated Gold production growth is
not without some "mngmt. risk", for example; on Aug. 15/06 CMM mngmt.
was forecasting 2006 Gold production at
100,000 oz., but only 2 days later on Aug. 17/06 CMM mngmt.
revised production guidance downwards by 15% to
85,000 oz. ... CMM mngmt. has since changed 2006 production
forecasts to
88,100 oz.
Some of CMM's future estimated Gold production
growth is also subject to some "country risk", for example;
CMM recently expirenced some permitting delays in Peru...
and because CMM's 2007 and 2008 production growth forecasts include an increasing
percentage of production growth coming from it's Peruvian mining
operations, recent history in South America shows extra caution is warranted when making resource
forecasts/investments in South American countries.
If the company can meet or beat it's current
production forecasts, as well as manage it's risk's and growth in Peru
responsibly, IMO, a healthy rate of return is possible
sometime over the next 12 - 24 months from
current share price levels... however, recent history has shown "mngmt.
risk" and "country risk" need to be monitored closely with this
company, because missed production targets and permitting delays could
delay/mute anticipated appreciation in share value, possibly
even during
a general environment of rising Precious Metals prices.
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